Day 80 Pick: Blue Jays, Alvarez -116

Tomorrow, college football starts.  That is the only carrot pulling the horse into today's pick.  Do with that what you will...

Units: 3

Overall Record: 36-43

Streak: 2L

Day 79 Pick: Rays, Hellickson +120

No time for reasoning today. Just go with it...

Units: 3
Overall Record: 36-42
Streak: 1L

Day 78 Pick: Marlins, Sanchez +105

College Football starts this week....Not sure what that has to do with today's pick, but it is a fact nonetheless.  Sanchez and the Marlins at this price is a good gamble, plus, the Mets are pretty terrible.

Units: 3
Overall Record: 36-41
Streak: 1W

College Football Week 1: Predictions Against the Spread

It is finally here! Opening weekend of College Football (aka the "Holiday" in my household) is upon us and that means the return of gambling on real football. This weekend is possibly the most wonderful time of the year. It is the one day of the season where every team still has that glimmer of hope for a perfect season. However, like my eventual position by the end of this long awaited day, half of these teams will fall flat on their faces. 

From my experience, picking against the spread for Week One is tough. There are just too many variables and five touchdown spreads. It can often feel like throwing darts made of yarn at balloons sprayed in Teflon. So, to conserve time, let's see if I can just say one sentence for each pick and hope that a corny joke can make those line-writing gods smile.

This will be my second season making predictions against the spread for the AP's Top 25.  Last year I finished with a 132-128-6 record (50.77%), which, in the long run, means absolutely nothing....

(Pick is the team in Bold)

No.1 Oklahoma (-23.5) vs. Tulsa:

I could be falling in love with the Boomer Sooner...However, it could be just because of this video.

No. 2 Alabama (-36.5) vs. Kent:

Unless its a bunch of Clark Kents, this game is going to be a laugher. 

No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU (-1):

No one likes to be kicked while they are down....deep thoughts for JJ.

No. 5 Boise State (-3) @ No. 19 Georgia

Blue Cheese crumbles...so will this year's Blue Turf Warriors.  

No. 6 Florida State (-29.5) vs. LA Monroe

From the zero research that I have done, the Seminoles seem legit. This below-30 spread should be a breeze. 

No. 7 Stanford (-28) vs. San Jose State

The Spartans are going to need luck to win this game...both versions of the word.  

No. 8 Texas A&M (-15.5) vs. SMU

Kyle Padron has the ability to  hover around the top of the league in passing yards all year. This could be his come out game

No. 9 Oklahoma State (-36) vs. LA Lafayette

Love the name Ragin Cajuns...Don't like their chances in covering this spread.  

No. 10 Nebraska (-35) vs. Tennessee Chattanooga 

Didn't Terrell Owens go to this red-headed stepchild of a school? He is long gone and so are the Mocs chances in this one.

No. 11 Wisconsin (-35.5) vs. UNLV

Unfortunately, Vegas cant hit the lights on this game. However, Rebels still find a way to cover. 

No. 12 South Carolina (-21) @ East Carolina

Gamecocks....Insert your own perverted joke here.

No. 13: Virgina Tech (-25) vs. Appalachian State

Anyone who upsets Michigan can upset the world in my mind.

No. 14 TCU (-6.5) @ Baylor

No Andy Dalton means trouble for these Christians.

No. 15 Arkansas (-40) vs. SW Mississippi State

NCAA Football '12 list Arkansas as playing "FCS Northwest" in week one. Always a sign for a significant rout.

No. 16 Notre Dame (-10.5) vs. South Florida

I've been on the Golden Domers band wagon this offseason. Prove me right, Irish.   

No. 17 Michigan State (-34) vs. Youngstown State.

A Spartan massacres a penguin every time, without question.  

No. 18 Ohio State (-33.5) vs. Akron

The Zips can't hang, but the Buckeyes can't play fair. Picking Akron on pure spite.  

No. 20 Mississippi State (-27.5) @ Memphis

This is a tough one.  Let's go to the "magical coin" to decide. Heads the Bulldogs, tails the Tigers.   

No. 21 Missouri (-16) vs. Miami (OH)

I had a friend play for Miami (OH) in the late '90s. That's good enough for me to pull for the Red Hawks. 

No. 22 Florida (-35) vs. FAU

FAU to you, too!  But, seriously, the Gators win by at least 40.

No. 23 Auburn (-21) vs. Utah State

Auburn can survive at least one game without Cam Newton and Nick Fairley....right?

No. 24 West Virgina (-21) vs. Marshall

We are....going to lose...but still cover.

No. 25 USC (-21) vs. Minnesota

Trojans force the Gophers back into their hole. USC fans squeal in sanctioned delight.  

Day 77 Pick: Rays, Price -110

I need Tampa Bay to light up Morrow and the Blue Jays for sooooooo many reasons. Why not add one more to the list....

Units: 4
Overall Record: 35-41
Streak: 2L

Day 76 Pick: Padres, Harang +135

The winning streak has come to an end, but I still have a good feeling about the direction that this is heading. Still trying to steer clear from preseason football and with Hurricane Irene wreaking havoc, there weren't that many games to pick from today. This is a gamble, but I like the payout.

Units: 2
Overall Record:35-40
Streak: 1L

Day 75 Pick: Angels, Haren +105

It is typically a dangerous strategy to keep picking against a team that is leading their division. However, the Angels have been hot and the Rangers are not. I'm putting my longest winning streak in this project on the line with this risky pick, so it should be interesting. (At least to me, anyways.)

Units: 2
Overall Record: 35-39
Streak: 4W

Day 74 Pick: Red Sox, Miller +150

Will Texas get absolutely raped like they did last night?  Probably not.  But that kind of loss has to bruise the Rangers' ego oh-so-slightly and this inflated line against the Red Sox seems like a nice little gamble....

Units: 3
Overall Record:  34-39
Streak: 3W

Day 73 Pick: Orioles, Guthrie +120

Today's pick would be the equivalent of throwing a dart at a board with the list of games on them.  I dont really like any of the games left today, so I decided just to guess.  Cross your fingers, because a win will be pure luck...

Units: 2
Overall Record: 33-39

Day 72 Pick: Red Sox, Lackey +145

Yes, Lackey has burned me a couple times in the past. However, when you can get the Red Sox's at a price like this, I think it's worth the gamble. But as the saying goes fool me once...I cant remember the rest. Maybe, Ill ask George W. Bush.

Units: 3
Overall Record: 32-39

Day 71 Pick: Brewers, Narveson -115

A huge discrepancy in lines between Caesars and the rest of the world. This makes this lesser line seem like a nice bet.

Units: 4
Overall Record: 31-39

Day 70 Pick: Marlins, Sanchez +128

This one-to-two sentence trick is really working for me. So, why stop now...

Units: 2
Overall Record: 31-38

Day 69 Pick: Phillies, Oswalt -135

It appears the less I write the better my pick does. So, there...

Units: 5
Overall Record: 30-38

Day 68 Pick: Red Sox, Miller -120

Not really in the mood to described why. It's Boston against the inept Royals...enough said.

Units: 5
Overall Record: 29-38

Day 67 Pick: Indians, Masterson -116

Yup. Almost forgot to make a pick. Thank God for the Central Time Zone.

Units: 4
Overall Record: 28-38

Day 66 Pick: Red Sox, Lackey +105

The Tampa Bay/Boston rivalry has definitely heated up over the past few years, so this one (like the line suggests) is really any ones game.

I went with Price the last time he went out against the Yankees, however, I feel like he will not be so lucky this time around in Fenway.  Expect the Red Sox to unleash a significant amount of power on Price while they cross their fingers that Lackey and their bullpen can hold onto the lead.

Units: 3
Overall Record: 28-37

Day 65 Pick: Indians, Jimenez +115

Ubaldo Jimenez is primed to show the American League just how good his stuff can be.  His last start was just a little taster.

Both him and Gavin Floyd were on my fantasy teams during some point this season and both pretty much disappointed me at one point or another.

Jimenez might be having an off season, however, he is definitely the better pitcher taking the mound in this matchup despite Vegas' concerns.

Units: 3
Overall Record: 28-36

Day 64 Pick: Cardinals, Westbrook -124

Pittsburgh continues to tumble and instead of hoping that they make fools out of the odds makers in Vegas, let's run with the losing streak this time.

St. Louis showed promise last night in prime time and they are more than capable of handling these sinking Pirates.  The Cards are definitely the better team taking the field tonight, making this a very attractive price.

Units: 4
Overall Record: 28-35

Day 63 Pick: Astros, Lyles +185

There is nothing like getting close to two-to-one against the Dodgers. Ya, the Astros look like that piece of steak that I dropped on the floor yesterday, but I really, really need the Dodgers to lose today. Given the ridiculous season that LA has been having this season, it seems like they could do me this little favor. Perhaps they could just loss their next 40 so I can also win that 20-game spread in the SF/LA bet that I have with my good friend. But that might be asking too much.

Units: 2
Overall Record: 28-34

Day 62 Pick: Pirates, Corriea +170

The Pirates are looking much more like the Pirates that everyone outside of Pittsburgh has grown to love the past 18 seasons. However, just like yesterday, I have strange feeling that Milwaukee might enter this game with a little too much moxy.

This game and series is enormous for both sides. While I do think the Brewers will win this series, I also believe that the Bucs will at least take one game.

Units: 3
Overall Record: 28-33

Day 61 Pick: Devil Rays, Price +175

I'm starting off the third month of wagering with a complete gamble.  C.C. Sabathia has been lights out against everyone not wearing a Red Sox's jersey.  However, I have a sneaky suspicion that Tampa Bay might be able attack C.C.'s battered ego early.

Price has been a gamble in-general this entire season, but today is the day he could actually pay off big.

Units: 3
Overall Record: 27-33

30-Game Review: Month Two

Sixty games have past and yesterday's Big Loss takes me down to six games below .500.  The hole that I am down on the money side of things feels and definitely is much deeper.

During a long betting project like this, it is important to keep the motivation levels pumping.  I have decided to implement a "30-60-90" progress report to, ideally, pull some encouraging numbers.  Since I completely missed the "30" mark, lets see how the "second 30" treated me.

Despite that horrid six game losing streak in late July, it actually was not a completely terrible 30 days of gambling.  Last night's bet ended up determining the overall "profit" level of this second month of wagering.  However, it didn't quite go as I planned.  These numbers definitely make me feel better than those overall numbers.  Hopefully I can build up from these numbers over the next 30 days.

Day	Sport	Pick	Line	Units	W	L	T	Payout
31	Soccer	World Cup, USA	-109	2	1			$183.49
32	MLB	Indians, Masterson	-109	2	1			$183.49
33	MLB	Tigers, Verlander	-200	5		1		($500.00)
34	MLB	Angels, Weaver	-124	3	1			$241.94
35	MLB	Diamondbacks, Hudson	-150	3	1			$200.00
36	MLB	White Sox, Buehrle	-125	3	1			$240.00
37	MLB	Nationals, Zimmerman	-150	3		1		($300.00)
38	MLB	Rangers, Holland	125	2		1		($200.00)
39	MLB	Angels, Weaver	-119	3	1			$252.10
40	MLB	Diamondbacks, Hudson	-172	2		1		($200.00)
41	MLB	Rays, Niemann	-110	3		1		($300.00)
42	MLB	Indians, Masterson	-130	3		1		($300.00)
43	MLB	Angels, Haren	-125	3		1		($300.00)
44	MLB	Nationals, Zimmerman	-135	3		1		($300.00)
45	MLB	Tigers, Scherzer	+110	3		1		($300.00)
46	MLB	Pirates, Correia	+150	3	1			$450.00
47	MLB	Twins, Liriano	+135	3	1			$405.00
48	MLB	Twins, Blackburn	+122	3		1		($300.00)
49	MLB	Angels, Weaver	+110	2		1		($200.00)
50	MLB	Brewers, Grienke	-120	2	1			$166.67
51	MLB	Phillies, Kendrick	-115	3	1			$260.87
52	MLB	Padres, Stauffer	-120	3	1			$250.00
53	MLB	Tigers, Penny	+140	3		1		($300.00)
54	MLB	Yankees, Colon	+145	2	1			$290.00
55	MLB	Braves, Hanson	-110	4		1		($400.00)
56	MLB	White Sox,  Peavy	-108	3	1			$277.78
57	MLB	Red Sox, Wakefield	-110	4	1			$363.64
58	MLB	Astros, Lyles	+168	2		1		($200.00)
59	MLB	Phillies, Worley	-124	4	1			$325.20
60	MLB	Brewers, Gallardo	+130	5		1		($500.00)
		Overall			15	15	0	($509.82)

Overall Record: 27-33

Profit/Debt: -$2,254.43